Creating Futures

Land Use Change

This case study depicts three alternative scenarios for future land use change in the Waikato region (to 2050):

  1. Dairy expansion: 4 per cent per annum increase in demand for dairying land, from 320,000 ha (2001) to 895,000 ha (2050)
  2. Dairy decline: initial increase in demand for dairying land to 2010 (max 370,000 ha), followed by gradual decline to 2050 (71,000 ha)
  3. Village life: 7-fold increase in demand for residential land from 5,000 ha (2001) to 37,000 (2050) with preference for living in smaller towns.

Note: simulations were run with an early WISE prototype using the land use change model only.

Source: Landcare Research NZ Ltd (2009)

Changes in land use in 2050 are shown below (baseline is 2007):

To watch animations of the land use changes of the three scenarios from the base year (2007) to 2050 click on 'slide show' in the links below: